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Monday, January 31, 2011
Justin.tv To Launch Social Video-Sharing App
The guys over at Justin.tv are planning to launch SocialCam, a video-sharing app for mobile that will make uploading video to one’s social…
?New York Times? Updates Homepage With Links to Twitter & Facebook
On the same day it quietly rolled out an algorithm-based recommendations service, The New York Times added links to both its Facebook and Twit…
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THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2015
Oliver Wyman Group has released a very interesting piece about the potential for a future financial crisis (thanks to the FT).� They make the case that the next great financial crisis will occur around 2015 and will be the result of a massive bubble in commodity markets that results in widespread economic collapse and sovereign defaults.
I’ve described in recent reports how the financialization of the USA is helping to drive commodity prices higher (see here for more) and generate economic instability.�� This, combined with the other two major structural imbalances in the global economy (China’s flawed economic policy and the inherently flawed single currency system in Europe) are creating an environment that is ripe for disequilibrium and turmoil.� The potential for bubbles is not only likely, but now appears like a near certainty.
Wyman describes how the bubble will form in commodities and ultimately collapse:
“Based on favorable demographic trends and continued liberalization, the growth story for emerging markets was accepted by almost everyone. However, much of the economic activity in these markets was buoyed by cheap money being pumped into the system by Western central banks. Commodities prices had acted as a sponge to soak up the excess global money supply, and commodities-rich emerging economies such as Brazil and Russia were the main beneficiaries.
High commodities prices created strong incentives for these emerging economies to launch expensive development projects to dig more commodities out of the ground, creating a massive oversupply of� commodities relative to the demand coming from the real economy. In the same way that over-valued property prices in the US had allowed people to go on debt-fueled spending sprees, the governments of� commodities-rich economies started spending beyond their means.� They fell into the familiar trap of borrowing from foreign investors to finance huge development projects justified by unrealistic valuations. Western banks built up large and concentrated loan exposures in these new and exciting growth markets.
The banking M&A market was turned on its head. Banks pursuing high growth strategies, particularly those focussed on lending to the booming commodities-rich economies, started to attract high market valuations and shareholder praise. In the second half of 2012 some of these banks made successful bids for some of the leading European players that had been cut down to a digestible size by the new anti-?too big to fail? regulations. The market was, once again, rewarding the riskiest strategies. Stakeholders and commentators began pressing risk-averse banks to mimic their bolder rivals.
The narrative driving the global commodities bubble assumed a continuation of the increasing demand from China, which had become the largest commodities importer in the world. Any rumors of a slowing Chinese economy sent tremors through global markets. Much now depended on continued demand growth in China and continued appreciation of commodities prices.”
The bubble bursts
Western central banks pumping cheap money into the financial system was seen by many as having the dual purposes of kick-starting Western economies and pressing China to appreciate its currency. Strict capital controls initially enabled the Chinese authorities to resist pressure on their currency. Yet the dramatic rises in commodities prices resulting from loose Western monetary policies eventually caused rampant inflation in China. China was forced to raise interest rates and appreciate its currency to bring inflation under control. The Western central banks had been granted their wish of an appreciating Chinese currency but with the unwanted side effect of a slowing Chinese economy and the reduction in global demand that came with it.
Once the Chinese economy began to slow, investors quickly realized that the demand for commodities was unsustainable. Combined with the massive oversupply that had built up during the boom, this led to a collapse of commodities prices. Having borrowed to finance expensive development projects, the commodities-rich countries in Latin America and Africa and some of the world?s leading mining companies were suddenly the focus of a new debt crisis. In the same way that the sub-prime crisis led to a plethora of half-completed real estate development projects in the US, Ireland and Spain, the commodities crisis of 2013 left many expensive commodity exploration projects unfinished.
Western banks and insurers did not escape the consequences of the commodities crisis. Some, such as the Spanish banks, had built up direct exposure by financing Latin American development projects. Others, such as US insurers, had amassed indirect exposures through investments in infrastructure funds and bank debt. Inflation pressure in the US and UK during the commodities boom had forced the Bank of England and Fed to push through a series of interest rate hikes that forced many Western debtors that had been holding on since the subprime crisis, to finally to default on their debts. With growth in both developed and emerging markets suppressed, the world once again fell into recession.”
Of course, this scenario is already largely playing out in real-time.� We are seeing investors drive up the prices of commodities as the global economy recovers and speculators look for the next big boom.� Wyman elaborates:
“However, it is already apparent that increasing commodities prices are also creating inflationary pressure in China, which is exacerbated by China holding its currency artificially low by effectively pegging it to the� US dollar. This makes commodities look like an attractive hedge against inflation for Chinese investors. The loose monetary policy in developed markets is similarly making commodities look attractive for Western investors. This ?commodities rush? is demonstrated in the right-hand chart below, which shows the asset allocations of European and Asian investors. A recent investor survey by Barclays also found that 76% of investors predicted an even bigger inflow into commodities in 2011.”
Ultimately, they conclude that the imploding commodity bubble will lead to another financial crisis and sovereign defaults.� Their “base case” scenario involves mostly European nations experiencing defaults.� This looks not only likely, but probable.� It is likely that the periphery of Europe will remain mired in recession for several years as austerity measures put downward pressure on their economies and the Euro governments fail to enact a true fix to the flawed single currency system. Persistent weakness in Greece and Ireland will cause continual political turmoil and ultimately the scenes of Egypt would not be surprising throughout many parts of Europe as citizens demand real change.� The Euro would likely remain the primary European currency, however, several periphery nations would reconsider their involvement.
Now, where I disagree with the Wyman analysis is in their “worst case” scenario.� Any regular reader knows that it is highly flawed analysis to conclude that the USA could potentially default on its obligations – all of which are denominated in the currency in which it alone has monopoly supply of.� This simple point eludes even some of the brightest minds in economics today.� A default of the USA is impossible.� The only form of default could come through hyperinflation.� Considering the deflationary collapse that would likely result during the Wyman “worst case” scenario I think it’s likely that we would once again see the USA become the global safehaven and the USD would not collapse, but surge as it did in 2008.� Still, the economic impacts would be deeply negative for the entire global economy though a collapse of the USA is not on the table.
We continue to see increasing disequilibrium in the global economy.� The flaws in the Euro, China’s misguided economic policy and the endless financialization of the USA are the three primary factors contributing to what is unavoidable future calamity.� It’s clear that none of these countries are interested in any sort of near-term pain that would be required to fix these structural imbalances so it’s not a stretch to assume that we will continue the boom/bust cycle that has become a trademark of the last 25 years of global economic growth.� The commodity bubble will merely be a symptom of these imbalances.
Wyman concludes that this event could be several years away, however, I fear that this event could easily occur sooner than 2015.� We remain in one continuing balance sheet recession with rippling waves that could cause these imbalances to resurface sooner than anyone believes.� The resulting impacts will be broad and have the potential to forever change the way we approach future economic growth and the way governments intervene in markets.� I would expect the Bernanke Fed to be in the middle of the ensuing storm.� Such a crisis would likely result in wide ranging policy changes that will finally clear the imbalances of the credit crisis and create a foundation for truly sustainable economic prosperity.
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Blog Post: Who Wants to Work in the Cloud?
Hey folks, as some of you may know I work with the SharePoint Online team at Microsoft. We're currently looking for some fresh SharePoint savvy engineers to join our team and help design and build the next generation of SharePoint in the cloud services. If you have the SharePoint chops and interest, we'd love to talk to you. Here are the openings we're trying to fill right now - look them over and apply online if you find something that interests you. If you have questions you can talk to our recruiter Jubal at jubali@microsoft.com.
Sr. Systems Engineer
http://www.microsoft-careers.com/job/Redmond-Systems-Engineer,-Senior-Job-WA-98052/1074671/
Sr. Systems Engineer
http://www.microsoft-careers.com/job/Redmond-Systems-Engineer,-Senior-Job-WA-98052/1034068/
Systems Engineer
http://www.microsoft-careers.com/job/Redmond-SYSTEMS-ENGINEER-Job-WA-98052/1074657/
Software Development Engineer
http://www.microsoft-careers.com/job/Redmond-Software-Dev-Engineer-Job-WA-98052/1074652/
Systems Engineer
http://www.microsoft-careers.com/job/Redmond-SYSTEMS-ENGINEER-Job-WA-98052/1109210
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Blog Post: Parcours TechDays 2011 - D�veloppement Web & RIA, le meilleur des parcours ?
Au sein du thème Architecture et Développement, le parcours Développement Web & RIA va vous faire voyager autour de toutes les technologies tournant autour du développement Web tant côté client que côté serveur. Vous y trouverez ainsi des sessions autour d'ASP.NET, de WebMatrix, d'Internet Explorer 9, d'HTML5 et Silverlight.
En arpentant la zone de préparation des TechDays, j’ai pu récolter le témoignage de David Rousset et Stanislas Quastana concernant ce parcours qui promet d’être haut en couleurs :
Le détail exhaustif de ce riche parcours est le suivant :
Mardi 8 février
Le Cloud pour les développeurs et les administrateurs : vue technique (KEY201)
Internet Explorer 9, c'est d'la balle ! (RIA202)
Migration vers IE8/IE9 : comment résoudre les problèmes de compatibilités avec Internet Explorer (SER303)
Améliorer les performances Web : les optimisations côté client (DES201)
Javascript dans tous ses états (DES204)
Introduction à HTML5 (RIA201)
Développement Web: débutez avec les technologies Microsoft (RIA102)
Unification des développements Web, Windows et Phone (ARC304)
WCF RIA Services de A à Z (RIA103)
Silverlight et WPF en entreprise : retours d'expérience, bonnes pratiques et techniques avancées (RDA204)
Mercredi 9 février
Le Cloud accélère la transformation vers l'entreprise numérique… (KEY202)
PHP : outils et méthodologie, prenez de bonnes habitudes ! (INT205)
Collaboration designer/développeur: retours d'expérience et bonnes pratiques à travers une application Windows Phone 7 et Silverlight 4 (WP7102)
Industrialiser le développement avec Silverlight 4 et RIA Services (RIA302)
45 projets en 45 minutes (INT204)
Accélérer vos développements Web grâce aux frameworks, toolkit & applications (RIA203)
Développer, tester et déployer un site web avec WebMatrix (RIA101)
Accessibilité du Web 2.0 avec HTML5 et Silverlight (ACC301)
Présentation ASP.NET MVC 3 (RIA301)
Jeudi 10 février
A quoi va ressembler demain avec l'informatique contextuelle, les interfaces naturelles et intuitives ? (KEY203)
Conversion Anatomy (DES205)
Réussir des applications attractives grâce au prototypage et à Sketchflow (DES102)
Merci,
Giampaolo Battaglia
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Sponsor post: Sponsor post: TechSoup Digital Storytelling Challenge Is On!
Submit your story to TechSoup?s Digital Storytelling Challenge now through Jan. 31, 2011. Social benefit organizations and libraries are challenged to create a 60-second video or photo submission, showcasing their mission and work for a chance to win prizes from Adobe, FlipVideo, Citrix, and others. 
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Bearish Outlook Led by Russell
After analyzing multiple charts this past weekend, the picture is not pretty. Major indices have traded into resistance and are ending their recent short term uptrends, accompanied by bearish candlestick patterns and negative divergences in some indicators. On Friday, SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) and PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) broke and closed below their 20-day simple moving averages accompanied by heavy volume. Negative divergences present in many indicators include the RSI and MACD on weekly and daily time frames. The break of these moving averages signal an end to the minor uptrend, yet does not necessarily indicate a downtrend as sideways is a possibility. The Russell 2000 Index, however, is suggesting an extremely bearish outlook.
On January 26th, I commented on the potential broadening top formation in the iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM). To reiterate, IWM recently broke it’s intermediate up trend line. Moreover, an extremely rare and bearish price pattern may be forming called a broadening top formation, or megaphone. In this pattern, the price continuously makes higher highs and lower lows between two diverging trend lines. Volume during a broadening formation usually runs high and the pattern resembles a market that is out of control and lacks leadership from smart money. When this type of pattern triggers (can be seen in SPY right before the “flash crash”), the resulting down move is fast and furious.
Chart 1: IWM: Highlights a bearish candlestick pattern within the larger broadening top formation, that can be used to minimize ones risk if initiating a short position. Trigger: aggressive: initiate at these levels, preferably on a bounce, conservative: confirmed break of the lower boundary line, which will possibly coincide with a break of the 50 day sma. Stop: can be triggered on a daily close above the highs of the candlestick pattern, at $79.67.
{CHART 1 GOES HERE}
Chart 2: Highlights a bearish candlestick reversal pattern in SPY, that also occurred with a break and close below the 20 day SMA. With a bearish outlook for the markets led by the IWM, one could short SPY here with stops above the recent highs. Trigger: aggressive: initiate at these levels. conservative: initiate on a confirmed move below the rising intermediate trendline. Stop: Close above the recent highs, at $130.35.
{CHART 2 GOES HERE}
Over the past two weeks, in my market letter, I outlined several short trade ideas in different names. Among some of them are Dril-Quip, Inc. (DRQ), Williams Sonoma Inc. (WSM), Interoil Corp (IOC) and Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK). Many of these names, after triggering, have bounced and are offering another entry opportunity close to resistance.
If you are interested in receiving Zev's free market letter, please email zevspiro@oripsllc.com subject "INSIDER."
Disclaimer: The information contained herein is not guaranteed. This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell. This material is based upon information that I consider to be reliable, but I do not guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Assumptions, opinions and recommendations contained herein are subject to change without notice, and I am not obligated to update the information contained herein. I may have a position in the security or securities mentioned. This communication, including any attachments, is for the exclusive use of the intended recipient(s) and/or the intended recipient's designees. Any use, retention or dissemination by a person other than the intended recipient is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient or designee, please notify the sender immediately by return e-mail and delete/destroy all copies of this communication
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The Triple Crown
Netflix is interesting because it is the first service to follow the disruptive arc of the iPad. Every time the iPad is analyzed, the projections are anywhere from just plain wrong to what amounts to a niche. Doesn?t run applications? now there?s an AppStore. Doesn?t run Flash? now there?s a Flash converter app. Apps don?t support a magazine subscription model? Tuesday they will. Won?t be accepted by IT? 80% penetration. Will be overwhelmed by Android tablets? Apple will Verizon them with iPad 2. What is reminiscent of iPadnomics is the speed with which the disruption is underestimated, the naivet� with which the backlash is orchestrated, and the resultant vaulting of the service into a near-incumbent position before the deposed incumbents can retrench from the initial mistaken counterattack. Netflix is already at the stage where iTunes was when the music cartel tried to cap it. While Amazon may be a cheaper service without so-called DRM, there's no device comparable to Apple TV at the end of the value chain. 
Emmanuelle Vaugier Sarah Silverman Larissa Meek Gina Carano Sanaa Lathan
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Chewsy Looks to Add Flavor to Dish Reviews
The Spark of Genius Series highlights a unique feature of startups and is made possible by Microsoft BizSpark. If you would like to have your st…
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Motorola Atrix 4G Shows Off for the Camera [VIDEO]
Motorola has just released a new promo video for its upcoming Atrix 4G smartphone. We were really impressed by the Motorola Atrix 4G when we saw it…
Jennifer Aniston Amy Cobb Deanna Russo Cheryl Burke Olivia Wilde
Blog Post: MHTML Script Injection vulnerability in IE (2501696)
Alle Sicherheitsexperten aufgepasst: In Microsoft Security Advisory (2501696) vom 28. J�nner wird auf eine neu entdeckte Sicherheitsl�cke in Internet Explorer aufmerksam gemacht: ?Vulnerability in MHTML Could Allow Information Disclosure?.
Diese Schwachstelle betrifft nur Internet Explorer im Zusammenhang mit MHTML und speziell pr�parierten Webseiten. ?Internet Explorer is an attack vector, but because this is a Windows vulnerability, the version of IE is not relevant.?
�ber das Tool in Microsoft Security Advisory: Vulnerability in MHTML could allow information disclosure k�nnen eigene Windows Systeme gepr�ft und gesch�tzt werden:
Der Schutz aktiviert einen ?Network Protocol Lockdown for mhtml for all security zones? ? Scripting und ActiveX in MHTML wird deaktiviert. Diese Einschr�nkung hat allerdings keine oder kaum Einschr�nkungen (?We expect that in most environments this will have limited impact??), da MHTML Scripting im Web kaum verwendet wird. Derzeit ist auch nicht bekannt, dass diese Schwachstelle aktiv ausgenutzt wird.
Im TechNet Blog Security Research & Defense Blog informiert das Security Team von Microsoft ausf�hrlich �ber die Sicherheitsl�cke More information about the MHTML Script Injection vulnerability. Ansehen!
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Connecticut AG Opts For Street View Settlement, Without Seeing the Data
theodp writes "Verifying Google's data snare is crucial to assessing a penalty and assuring no repeat,' said Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal last December in response to Google's 'accidental' collection of payload data from WiFi networks. 'We will fight to compel Google to come clean-granting my office access to improperly collected materials and protecting confidentiality, as the company has done in Canada and elsewhere.' That was then. Luckily for Google, there's a new AG in town, and Blumenthal successor George Jepsen said Friday that his office will enter into settlement negotiations with the company without reviewing the pilfered data, which Google has steadfastly refused to share with it. 'This is a good result for the people of Connecticut,' Jepsen said in a statement. A separate Jepsen press release suggested some of the blame for the privacy offenses laid with Google's victims, who were advised to 'turn off your wireless network when you know you won't use it' to thwart those who 'may be watching your Internet activity without your knowledge."
Read more of this story at Slashdot.
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Saturday, January 29, 2011
3 Projects to Create a Government-less Internet
The Internet blackout in Egypt, which we've been covering, touches on an issue we've raised occasionally here: the control of governments (and corporations) over the Internet (and by extension, the cloud). One possible solution, discussed by geeks for years, is the creation of wireless ad-hoc networks like the one in Little Brother to eliminate the need for centralized hardware and network connectivity. It's the sort of technology that's valuable not just for insuring both freedom of speech (not to mention freedom of commerce - Egypt's Internet blackout can't be good for business), but could be valuable in emergencies such as natural disasters as well.
Here are a few projects working to create such networks.
Sponsor
Wireless ad-hoc networking has been limited in the past by a bottleneck problem. Researchers may have solved this issue for devices with enough computational power. The U.S. military is also investing in research in this area.
The OLPC's XO has meshnetworking capabilities. And some gaming systems, such as the Nintendo DS, have mesh networking built in. But we want to look at projects that are specifically aimed at replacing or augmenting the public Internet.
Openet
Openet is a part of the open_sailing project. Openet's goal is to create a civilian Internet outside of the control of governments and corporations. It aims to not only create local mesh networks, but to build a global mesh network of mesh networks stitched together by long range packet radio. See our previous coverage here.
Netsukuku
Netsukuku is a project of the Italian group FreakNet MediaLab. Netsukuku is designed to be a distributed, anonymous mesh network that relies only on normal wireless network cards. FreakNet is even building its own domain name architecture. Unfortunately, there's no stable release of the code and the web site was last updated in September 2009.
OPENMESH
Not to be confused with the mesh networking hardware vendor of the same name, OPENMESH is a forum created by venture captalist Shervin Pishevar for volunteers interested in building mesh networks for people living in conditions where Internet access may be limited or controlled.
Pishevar came up with the idea during the protests in Iran in 2009. "The last bastion of the dictatorship is the router," he told us. The events in Egypt inspired him to get started.
It's a younger project than Openet and Netsukuku, but it may have more mainstream appeal thanks to being backed by Pishevar. It's not clear how far along Openet is, and Netsukuku's seems to be completely stalled so a new project isn't entirely unreasonable.
Others?
Please let us know of any other similar projects, especially ones that are further along, in the comments or by e-mailing klint@readwriteweb.com.
Discuss
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?Angry Birds Rio? Game to be Released in March [VIDEO]
Angry Birds fans, it’s confirmed, a new edition of the blockbuster smartphone and console game is coming in March, and it’ll be called…
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War Maneuvers: Android Event Will Battle iPad Event For Press Love On February 2
I love asking companies if the timing of events is on purpose or purely coincidental. Not only do they almost always say that it's purely coincidental, but they often try to claim that didn't even realize a rival was also doing something when they made their plans. Sure. Next week will feature another such situation. Earlier this week, News Corp. and Apple sent out press invites for an event to unveil the new iPad-only app, The Daily. And then this evening, we've just received an invite to a Google event to show off the latest version of Android, Honeycomb. The one meant for tablets. And guess what? They're on the same day.
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Why the Telcos Will Go On a Spending Spree
We've seen a lot of talk about possible acquisition targets since the news broke. But it feels like it's more interesting to explore why the market conditions are right for telecommunications companies executives to continue spending mergers and acquisition budgets on infrastructure providers and cloud management companies.
Sponsor
Chuck Hollis is vice president of global marketing and chief technology officer at EMC Corporation. It's clear to him that the acquisition is evident of the move to providing information technology more as a service than anything else:
If you believe in the secular trend that -- over time -- more IT will be delivered as a service vs. consumed in a traditional fashion, you quickly realize that telcos can have a compelling position.They've got lots and lots of pipe. They know how to deliver a related form of service -- communications. They know how to price their offerings and bill for them.
Their strategic motivations are usually clear as well. More ordinary network services are quickly becoming commoditized. There's only so much content you can sell people. And, before long, you go looking for the next big market to attack.
Indeed, early on, many people thought that IT-as-a-service would go to the telco carriers, and that would be that.
Stacey Higginbotham of GigaOm writes that telecommunications companies see the ability to manage customers networks and their infrastructure.
That's a new play that correlates to the deeper interest that the telecommunications companies have in extending the data they offer through APIs.
To offer the computing, the network and also data capabilities means telecommunications providers need to invest in cloud management technologies and new routing capabilities for data services. We'll see how these kinds of companies are viewed as telecommunications executives target more companies for acquisition in the year ahead.
Discuss
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